Cross River Rail service forecast

BrizCommuter went along to the Cross River Rail (CRR) display in King George Square (AKA Campbell Newman's Sauna Square). BrizCommuter was impressed with the plans, until he stumbled upon the forecast train service numbers for 2016, the currently expected year of CRR's opening. Page 72 of this document. Below are the expected am peak service figures for 2016 split into sectors based on tracks used, followed by an analysis.

CRR from North - 18tph:

Nambour -  3tph

Caboolture - 8tph

Redcliffe - 7tph

Suburbans from North - 10tph:

Ferny Grove - 8tph

Doomben - 2tph

Mains from North - 10tph:

Shorncliffe - 6tph

Airport - 4tph

CRR from South - 13tph:

Varsity Lakes - 9tph

Beenleigh - 4tph

Suburbans from South - 14tph:

Manly - 4tph

Cleveland - 6tph

Kuraby - 4tph

Mains from South - 18tph:

Springfield - 8tph

Ipswich - 8tph

Rosewood - 2tph

Whilst the service provision from Caboolture and Nambour has a reasonable (but not huge) improvement, the number of trains from Redcliffe/Kippa-Ring is only 1tph more than the current number of Petrie services. BrizCommuter can see lots of standing passengers in this sector which almost fills the new Cross River Rail tunnel to capacity from opening, unless 9-car trains are planned in 2016?

8tph from Ferny Grove is extremely pessimistic for 2016. This is just 1tph more than in 2006, a decade earlier!  Interestingly the Inner City Rail Capacity Study forecast 10tph for 2016. Poor old Doomben is stuck with 2tph. At least with a combined 10tph on this sector, there is room for future service enhancements to both Ferny Grove and an extension of the Doomben Line to Northshore Hamilton (dreaming).

The Shorncliffe Line has a considerable service improvement to 6tph. It appears that the Shorncliffe Line will serve all stations from Northgate into the CBD, which will allow Caboolture/Redcliffe trains to run express through this section. This is a sensible move. Sandgate to Shorncliffe will require duplication! 

Considerable patronage increase is expected from the Gold Coast Line with 9tph expected in 2016, up from 4tph in 2010. Whether CRR will run 9-car trains from the onset is unknown. Extra tracks will be required along this corridor to accommodate the extra Gold Coast services. Not such good news for Beenleigh Line commuters, where the forecast number of services from Beenleigh and Kuraby will not be any better than in 2008. Oh dear! 

10tph will run on the Cleveland Line, of which 6tph will originate from Cleveland. Again, this is minimal improvement over the current frequency, and 3tph less than forecast in the Inner City Rail Capacity Study. A partial duplication between Manly and Cleveland may be required for this service. 

Finally, the Ipswich and Springfield corridor seems to be near full capacity in 2016, with a combined 18tph service. 8tph from Springfield seems reasonable, lets hope that the stations between Richlands and Springfield are constructed! The lack of spare capacity in 2016 means that extra trains may need to be routed via Tennyson. It also increases the need for the "Brisbane Inner City Metro" (or whatever it is called this week) to connect to this sector rather than being self-contained. 

So to conclude, whilst some sections of the QR rail network will get service significant service improvements, many other sections may be very disappointed post CRR. Service forecasts appear to be very pessimistic, showing that may be little in the way of efforts to change Brisbane's transport paradigms. Maybe these figures are reflective of the Queensland Government's current apparent attempt to discourage public transport use with ever increasing fares and little in the way of service improvements?